Title: Report 34 - COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-ifr/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 18-page report discusses infection fatality ratio (IFR), a key statistic for estimating the burden of COVID-19 that has been continuously debated throughout the current pandemic. Previous estimates have relied on data early in the epidemic, or have not fully accounted for uncertainty in serological test characteristics and delays from onset of infection to seroconversion, death, and antibody waning. After screening 175 studies, this study identified 10 representative antibody surveys to obtain updated estimates of the infection fatality rate using a modeling framework that addresses the limitations.

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Title: Report 33 - Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-33-vaccine/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 21-page report identifies optimal vaccine allocation strategies within and between countries to maximize health (avert deaths) under constraints on dose supply. It extended an existing mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings to model the public health impact of potential vaccines, using a range of target product profiles developed by the World Health Organization.

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Title: Report 32 - Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-32-us/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 32-page report discusses how adults aged 20-49 are a main driver of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States; yet, in areas with resurging epidemics, opening schools will lead to more COVID-19-attributable deaths, so more targeted interventions in the 20-49 age group could bring epidemics under control, avert deaths, and facilitate the safe reopening of schools.

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Title: Report 31 - Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-31-syria/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 46-page report estimates the potential under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria, where all-cause mortality data has been reported between July 25 and August 1, 2020. It fits a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported COVID-19 deaths in Damascus since the beginning of the pandemic and compares the model-predicted deaths to reported excess deaths.

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Title: Report 30 - The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-30-china/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: To understand the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in China, this 16-page report summarizes a study that carried out data collation and descriptive analysis in 31 provinces and municipalities, with a focus on the six most affected.

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Title: Report 28 - Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020 | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-28-excess-deaths/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 29-page report details the 189,403 deaths from any cause reported in England from February 29 to June 5, 2020; 11,278 all-cause deaths in Wales over the same period; and the uncertainty in how many of the non-COVID-19 deaths were directly or indirectly caused by the pandemic. Excess non-COVID-19 deaths could be due to non-reporting of COVID-19 on the death certificate or an increase in mortality for non-COVID-19 conditions.

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Title: Report 27 - Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-27-hospital-capacity/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 26-page report aims to calculate hospital capacity for emergency treatment of COVID-19 and other patients during the pandemic surge in April and May 2020; evaluate the increase in capacity achieved via interventions (cancellation of elective surgery, field hospitals, use of private hospitals, and deployment of former and newly qualified medical staff); and determine how to re-introduce elective surgery considering continued demand from COVID-19 patients.

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Title: Report 26 - Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-26-mobility-transmission/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 94-page report characterizes the relationship between COVID-19 transmission and different mobility data streams for 53 countries around the world. Overall, strong population-wide social distancing measures are effective to control COVID-19; however, gradual easing of restrictions must be accompanied by alternative interventions, such as efficient contact tracing, to ensure control.

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Title: Report 25 - Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-25-south-korea/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 16-page report discusses how South Korea experienced a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the global pandemic, but it has since rapidly reduced rates of infection and now maintains low numbers of daily new cases.

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Title: Report 24 - Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-24-uk-mobility/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 19-page report summarizes a study that used two mobile phone-based datasets to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths during the COVID-19 lockdown. The reduction in mobility was highly synchronized across the United Kingdom.

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Title: Report 23 - State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-23-united-states/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: A report from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at the Imperial College London titled, "Report 23 - State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States". Published 21 May 2020. The report uses publicly available data to map the virus epidemics for each state.

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Title: Report 22 - Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-22-equity/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 21-page report draws on data from nationally representative population surveys to explore a subset of health inequities, how they relate to wealth, and the way in which they may drive variation in COVID-19 risk.

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Title: Report 21 - Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-21-brazil/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: Brazil is an epicenter for COVID-19 in Latin America. This 24-page report describes the Brazilian epidemic using three epidemiological measures: the number of infections, the number of deaths, and the reproduction number.

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Title: Report 20 - Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-20-italy/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 35-page report summarizes analysis that modeled the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission using data on average mobility in Italy. It estimates that the average reproduction number (a measure of transmission intensity) is currently below one for all Italian regions, and significantly so for the majority of the regions.

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Title: Report 19 - The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-19-hiv-tb-malaria/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 29-page report aims to quantify the extent to which disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in services for HIV, TB, and malaria in high burden low- and middle-income countries could lead to additional loss of life. In high burden settings, HIV, TB, and malaria related deaths over five years may be increased by up to 10 percent, 20 percent, and 36 percent, respectively, compared to if there were no COVID-19 epidemic.

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Title: Report 18 - The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-18-malaria/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: The COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have wide-reaching implications for malaria and its control. This nine-page report attempts to quantify the direct impact that the spread of COVID-19 will have on Plasmodium falciparum malaria morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa using mathematical models of COVID-19 and malaria.

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Title: Report 17 - Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-17-clinical/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 29-page report describes the characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in three large London hospitals with a multi-ethnic catchment population.

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Title: Report 16 - Role of testing in COVID-19 control | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-16-testing/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 13-page study used a simple mathematical model to investigate the potential effectiveness of alternative testing strategies for COVID-19 control. Widespread PCR testing in the general population is unlikely to limit transmission more than contact tracing and quarantine based on symptoms alone, but could allow earlier release of contacts from quarantine.

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Title: Report 15 - Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-15-hospital-capacity/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 40-page report presents the J-IDEA pandemic planner, a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff, and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows how to assess baseline capacity, and then calculate how much capacity is gained by various healthcare interventions using impact estimates that are generated as part of this study.

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Title: Report 14 - Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response Early Insights from a UK Perspective | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-14-online-community-involvement/

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: The Patient Experience Research Centre (PERC) at Imperial College London is developing research to explore and understand people's views about, experiences of, and behavioral response to the COVID-19 outbreak in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. To guide that effort and to help inform COVID-19 research and responses more broadly, PERC launched an online community involvement initiative detailed in this 31-page report that sought rapid, early insight from members of the public and aimed to establish a network for ongoing community engagement.

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Title: Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-update-epidemic-size-22-01-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This six-page document is Report 2 of a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19, and updates Report 1. Since then, cumulative confirmed cases reported by the Chinese authorities have increased 10-fold. The analysis suggests that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has caused substantially more cases of moderate or severe respiratory illness in Wuhan than have currently been detected.

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Title: Report 8: Symptom progression of COVID-19

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-symptom-progression-11-03-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

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Title: Report 4: Severity of 2019-Novel Coronavirus (nCoV)

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-severity-10-02-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 12-page document is Report 4 of a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19. It presents case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) infections. It is important to note that the differences in these estimates do not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases.

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Title: Report 7: Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-repatriation-09-03-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

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Title: Report 5: Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-phylogenetics-15-02-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This eight-page document is Report 5 of a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19. It describes how genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, provides information about epidemic origins and the rate of epidemic growth. By analyzing 53 SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences collected up to February 3, 2020, the analysis finds a strong association between the time of sample collection and accumulation of genetic diversity.

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Title: Report 6: Relative Sensitivity of International Surveillance

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-international-surveillance-21-02-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This six-page document is Report 6 of a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19. It analyzed COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China to different regions and countries, comparing the country-specific rates of detected and confirmed cases per flight volume to estimate the relative sensitivity of surveillance in different countries.

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Title: Report 1: Estimating the Potential Total Number of Novel Coronavirus Cases in Wuhan City, China

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-epidemic-size-17-01-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This four-page document is Report 1 of a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19. It estimates the potential number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan City, China, as of January 17, 2020, and concludes that it is likely that the Wuhan outbreak of the novel coronavirus has caused substantially more cases of moderate or severe respiratory illness than currently reported.

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Title: Report 10: Public Response to UK Government Recommendations on COVID-19: Population Survey, 17-18 March 2020

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Population-Survey-20-03-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

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Title: Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

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Title: Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This 19-page report combines data on age-specific contact patterns and COVID-19 severity to project the health impact of the pandemic in 202 countries. It compares predicted mortality impacts in the absence of interventions or spontaneous social distancing with what might be achieved with policies aimed at mitigating or suppressing transmission.

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Title: Evidence of Initial Success for China Exiting COVID-19 Social Distancing Policy After Achieving Containment

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Exiting-Social-Distancing-24-03-2020.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This eight-page report is Report 11 in a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19. This report provides information about how China has successfully exited its stringent social distancing policy to some degree. Policies implemented to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in China and the exiting strategies that followed can inform decision-making processes for countries once containment is achieved.

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Title: Report 23: State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-28-COVID19-Report-23-version2.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

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Title: Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV

URL: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-01-25-COVID19-Report-3.pdf

Collection: Global Health Events web archive

Description: This five-page document is Report 3 of a series of reports from Imperial College London on COVID-19. It details how self-sustaining human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is the only plausible explanation of the scale of the outbreak in Wuhan, China. The analysis indicates that it is highly likely that the human-to-human transmissibility of COVID-19 is sufficient to support sustained human transmission unless effective control measures are implemented.

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